Data and Core Metrics

The Football Forecast relies on Opta data via fbref as its foundation, focusing on two core metrics: GxG and GAxGA . These figures blend actual performance with underlying expected values, including xG and npxG (non-penalty expected goals). For more information regarding Expected Goals, check out my blog post: xG Explained: What Are Expected Goals?

This approach means that even when a team appears to lose “undeservedly” its strength rating can still rise and therefore improving its projected position in the table.  After each match the home and away team get assigned an initial GxG and GAxGA value purely based on raw stats, ignoring key factors like opponent strength and home advantage. In the next step, these values are adjusted, by the leagues typical home advantage and by the opponent’s strength.

These adjustments drastically influence how analysts interpret results. They transform a raw GxG value of 1 away at Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium into an adjusted value of 1.82, while scoring 1 GxG against Southampton at home reduces the adjusted figure to about 0.6. This highlights how much easier it becomes to score against weaker defenses.

Refining the Numbers

After the calculation of the GxG and GAxGA values, an exponential moving average (EMA) is applied to produce trailing values. So, all the games are being considered for each team, with the most recent games having the highest weight. This ensures, that the model stays up to date with a team’s current form.

The latest values are taken from each team and are getting normalized around 1. For example, a team with a GxG ratio of 0.9 and a GAxGA ratio of 0.9 means that the team scores 10% less than the current league average, however, also concedes 10% fewer goals than the current league average. Union Berlin provides an interesting case study: with a GxG ratio of around 0.59, they are dead last in the Bundesliga, however they have the 4^th best defense, balancing things out to create a stable mid-table projection.

With the final ratio values in place, simulations for the remaining league games can begin.

Simulation Process

Once the final offensive and defensive values are assigned to each team, they are plugged into a Monte Carlo simulation. Each league is simulated 20,000 times using a Poisson distribution. The number 20,000 provides a solid balance, generating reliable projections without excessive computing times.

The image below illustrates how a Poisson distribution appears in practice, showing how different probabilities are assigned to potential goal outcomes based on a given scoring rate.

After running the simulations, results are compiled for every team. This makes it possible to determine probabilities of winning the title, qualifying for the UEFA Champions League, or facing relegation. At the beginning of the season, everything is still possible, with multiple contenders for every scenario. As the season progresses and matchdays unfold, these probabilities become more and more precise.

Premier League Forecast

Premier League Bundesliga Serie A La Liga Ligue 1

Updated on 11/10/2024

Team	Strength	Win Premier League	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Liverpool Liverpool LIV	88.6	>99%	100%	–	88	52
Arsenal Arsenal ARS	87.9	<1%	>99%	–	76	37
Nott’ham Forest Nottingham Forest NFO	78.5	–	73%	–	68	17
Manchester City Manchester City MCI	84.9	–	58%	–	66	24
Newcastle Utd Newcastle NEW	80.7	–	29%	–	64	14
Chelsea Chelsea CHE	80.6	–	26%	–	63	19
Brighton Brighton BHA	79.6	–	9%	–	61	9
Bournemouth Bournemouth BOU	80.8	–	4%	–	59	16
Fulham Fulham FUL	77.1	–	<1%	–	56	4
Aston Villa Aston Villa AVL	74.3	–	<1%	–	56	-6
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace CRY	80.5	–	<1%	–	53	4
Brentford Brentford BRE	75.4	–	<1%	–	53	4
Manchester Utd Manchester United MUN	72.3	–	–	–	47	-7
Tottenham Tottenham TOT	76.8	–	–	–	46	12
Everton Everton EVE	75.8	–	–	–	45	-6
West Ham West Ham WHU	71.4	–	–	–	45	-18
Wolves Wolves WOL	70.3	–	–	<1%	37	-20
Ipswich Town Ipswich IPS	61.5	–	–	>99%	24	-43
Leicester City Leicester LEI	58.9	–	–	>99%	23	-51
Southampton Southampton SOU	56.6	–	–	100%	15	-61

Team	Strength	Win Bundesliga	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Bayern Munich Bayern München FCB	86.5	95%	100%	–	80	63
Leverkusen Leverkusen B04	83.3	5%	100%	–	73	35
Eint Frankfurt Frankfurt SGE	73.5	–	67%	–	58	16
Mainz 05 Mainz 05 M05	75.6	–	64%	–	57	18
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig RBL	74.3	–	29%	–	54	10
Freiburg Freiburg SCF	71.1	–	20%	–	54	-1
Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart VfB	75.2	–	8%	–	51	8
Wolfsburg Wolfsburg WOB	71.7	–	6%	–	50	10
Gladbach Gladbach BMG	68.5	–	5%	–	50	1
Augsburg Augsburg FCA	68.1	–	<1%	–	48	-8
Dortmund Dortmund BVB	76.4	–	1%	–	47	6
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen SVW	66.0	–	<1%	<1%	44	-14
Union Berlin Union Berlin FCU	62.6	–	–	3%	36	-20
St. Pauli St. Pauli STP	63.9	–	–	9%	33	-15
Hoffenheim Hoffenheim TSG	63.6	–	–	10%	33	-23
Bochum Bochum BOC	62.6	–	–	54%	29	-29
Heidenheim Heidenheim FCH	61.5	–	–	77%	26	-28
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel KSV	61.7	–	–	87%	25	-31

Team	Strength	Win Serie A	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Inter Inter INT	87.6	84%	100%	–	84	52
Napoli Napoli NAP	82.7	12%	>99%	–	79	31
Atalanta Atalanta ATA	83.4	4%	98%	–	76	44
Juventus Juventus JUV	79.8	<1%	56%	–	69	23
Bologna Bologna BOL	78.4	–	22%	–	66	16
Lazio Lazio LAZ	74.7	–	10%	–	64	10
Fiorentina Fiorentina FIO	76.4	–	6%	–	63	19
Roma Roma ROM	77.6	–	6%	–	62	15
Milan Milan MIL	77.2	–	3%	–	61	13
Udinese Udinese UDI	67.0	–	–	–	50	-8
Torino Torino TOR	71.3	–	–	–	50	0
Genoa Genoa GEN	69.8	–	–	–	45	-12
Como Como COM	69.9	–	–	<1%	43	-9
Hellas Verona Hellas Verona VER	61.0	–	–	3%	39	-34
Cagliari Cagliari CAG	64.4	–	–	7%	36	-20
Lecce Lecce LEC	60.6	–	–	33%	33	-34
Parma Parma PAR	61.9	–	–	39%	32	-24
Empoli Empoli EMP	60.5	–	–	43%	32	-27
Venezia Venezia VEN	58.7	–	–	76%	29	-24
Monza Monza MON	59.2	–	–	98%	23	-32

Team	Strength	Win La Liga	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Barcelona Barcelona BAR	88.1	83%	100%	–	85	65
Real Madrid Real Madrid RMA	85.2	15%	>99%	–	80	41
Atletico Madrid Atlético Madrid ATM	83.2	2%	>99%	–	76	33
Athletic Club Athletic Club ATH	81.3	<1%	85%	–	69	26
Villarreal Villarreal VIL	78.8	–	14%	–	62	16
Betis Real Betis BET	74.9	–	2%	–	59	5
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo CEL	72.5	–	<1%	–	53	-1
Mallorca Mallorca MLL	70.4	–	–	–	53	-8
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano RAY	72.0	–	<1%	–	51	0
Sevilla Sevilla SEV	70.2	–	–	<1%	49	-6
Getafe Getafe GET	70.8	–	<1%	<1%	49	2
Real Sociedad Real Sociedad RSO	70.2	–	–	<1%	48	-7
Girona Girona GIR	69.7	–	–	<1%	47	-7
Osasuna Osasuna OSA	66.4	–	–	2%	45	-12
Alaves Deportivo Alaves ALA	69.2	–	–	19%	40	-11
Valencia Valencia VAL	68.2	–	–	18%	40	-17
Espanyol Espanyol ESP	62.7	–	–	34%	39	-20
Leganes Leganes LEG	61.2	–	–	50%	37	-23
Las Palmas Las Palmas LPA	59.2	–	–	76%	34	-22
Valladolid Real Valladolid VLL	53.4	–	–	100%	23	-56

Team	Strength	Win Ligue 1	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Paris S-G PSG PSG	86.7	100%	100%	–	88	64
Marseille Marseille OM	75.3	–	66%	–	63	24
Monaco Monaco ASM	79.4	–	59%	–	62	25
Nice Nice NIC	76.5	–	36%	–	60	22
Lyon Lyon OL	75.8	–	25%	–	59	21
Lille Lille LIL	74.0	–	9%	–	57	15
Strasbourg Strasbourg STR	71.4	–	4%	–	55	10
Lens Lens RCL	69.2	–	<1%	–	50	2
Brest Brest BRE	69.3	–	<1%	–	48	-2
Toulouse Toulouse TFC	72.5	–	–	–	47	6
Auxerre Auxerre AJA	64.4	–	–	<1%	42	-5
Rennes Rennes REN	70.4	–	–	<1%	40	-1
Nantes Nantes NAN	62.1	–	–	1%	36	-17
Angers Angers SCO	55.1	–	–	6%	33	-24
Reims Reims SDR	58.0	–	–	21%	31	-19
Le Havre Le Havre HAC	58.0	–	–	58%	28	-36
Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne ASS	54.7	–	–	74%	27	-42
Montpellier Montpellier MON	56.2	–	–	88%	24	-44