Premier League Forecast

Premier League Bundesliga Serie A La Liga Ligue 1

Updated on 11/10/2024

Team	Strength	Win Premier League	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Liverpool Liverpool LIV	88.6	>99%	100%	–	88	52
Arsenal Arsenal ARS	87.9	<1%	>99%	–	76	37
Nott’ham Forest Nottingham Forest NFO	78.5	–	73%	–	68	17
Manchester City Manchester City MCI	84.9	–	58%	–	66	24
Newcastle Utd Newcastle NEW	80.7	–	29%	–	64	14
Chelsea Chelsea CHE	80.6	–	26%	–	63	19
Brighton Brighton BHA	79.6	–	9%	–	61	9
Bournemouth Bournemouth BOU	80.8	–	4%	–	59	16
Fulham Fulham FUL	77.1	–	<1%	–	56	4
Aston Villa Aston Villa AVL	74.3	–	<1%	–	56	-6
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace CRY	80.5	–	<1%	–	53	4
Brentford Brentford BRE	75.4	–	<1%	–	53	4
Manchester Utd Manchester United MUN	72.3	–	–	–	47	-7
Tottenham Tottenham TOT	76.8	–	–	–	46	12
Everton Everton EVE	75.8	–	–	–	45	-6
West Ham West Ham WHU	71.4	–	–	–	45	-18
Wolves Wolves WOL	70.3	–	–	<1%	37	-20
Ipswich Town Ipswich IPS	61.5	–	–	>99%	24	-43
Leicester City Leicester LEI	58.9	–	–	>99%	23	-51
Southampton Southampton SOU	56.6	–	–	100%	15	-61

Team	Strength	Win Bundesliga	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Bayern Munich Bayern München FCB	86.5	95%	100%	–	80	63
Leverkusen Leverkusen B04	83.3	5%	100%	–	73	35
Eint Frankfurt Frankfurt SGE	73.5	–	67%	–	58	16
Mainz 05 Mainz 05 M05	75.6	–	64%	–	57	18
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig RBL	74.3	–	29%	–	54	10
Freiburg Freiburg SCF	71.1	–	20%	–	54	-1
Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart VfB	75.2	–	8%	–	51	8
Wolfsburg Wolfsburg WOB	71.7	–	6%	–	50	10
Gladbach Gladbach BMG	68.5	–	5%	–	50	1
Augsburg Augsburg FCA	68.1	–	<1%	–	48	-8
Dortmund Dortmund BVB	76.4	–	1%	–	47	6
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen SVW	66.0	–	<1%	<1%	44	-14
Union Berlin Union Berlin FCU	62.6	–	–	3%	36	-20
St. Pauli St. Pauli STP	63.9	–	–	9%	33	-15
Hoffenheim Hoffenheim TSG	63.6	–	–	10%	33	-23
Bochum Bochum BOC	62.6	–	–	54%	29	-29
Heidenheim Heidenheim FCH	61.5	–	–	77%	26	-28
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel KSV	61.7	–	–	87%	25	-31

Team	Strength	Win Serie A	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Inter Inter INT	87.6	84%	100%	–	84	52
Napoli Napoli NAP	82.7	12%	>99%	–	79	31
Atalanta Atalanta ATA	83.4	4%	98%	–	76	44
Juventus Juventus JUV	79.8	<1%	56%	–	69	23
Bologna Bologna BOL	78.4	–	22%	–	66	16
Lazio Lazio LAZ	74.7	–	10%	–	64	10
Fiorentina Fiorentina FIO	76.4	–	6%	–	63	19
Roma Roma ROM	77.6	–	6%	–	62	15
Milan Milan MIL	77.2	–	3%	–	61	13
Udinese Udinese UDI	67.0	–	–	–	50	-8
Torino Torino TOR	71.3	–	–	–	50	0
Genoa Genoa GEN	69.8	–	–	–	45	-12
Como Como COM	69.9	–	–	<1%	43	-9
Hellas Verona Hellas Verona VER	61.0	–	–	3%	39	-34
Cagliari Cagliari CAG	64.4	–	–	7%	36	-20
Lecce Lecce LEC	60.6	–	–	33%	33	-34
Parma Parma PAR	61.9	–	–	39%	32	-24
Empoli Empoli EMP	60.5	–	–	43%	32	-27
Venezia Venezia VEN	58.7	–	–	76%	29	-24
Monza Monza MON	59.2	–	–	98%	23	-32

Team	Strength	Win La Liga	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Barcelona Barcelona BAR	88.1	83%	100%	–	85	65
Real Madrid Real Madrid RMA	85.2	15%	>99%	–	80	41
Atletico Madrid Atlético Madrid ATM	83.2	2%	>99%	–	76	33
Athletic Club Athletic Club ATH	81.3	<1%	85%	–	69	26
Villarreal Villarreal VIL	78.8	–	14%	–	62	16
Betis Real Betis BET	74.9	–	2%	–	59	5
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo CEL	72.5	–	<1%	–	53	-1
Mallorca Mallorca MLL	70.4	–	–	–	53	-8
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano RAY	72.0	–	<1%	–	51	0
Sevilla Sevilla SEV	70.2	–	–	<1%	49	-6
Getafe Getafe GET	70.8	–	<1%	<1%	49	2
Real Sociedad Real Sociedad RSO	70.2	–	–	<1%	48	-7
Girona Girona GIR	69.7	–	–	<1%	47	-7
Osasuna Osasuna OSA	66.4	–	–	2%	45	-12
Alaves Deportivo Alaves ALA	69.2	–	–	19%	40	-11
Valencia Valencia VAL	68.2	–	–	18%	40	-17
Espanyol Espanyol ESP	62.7	–	–	34%	39	-20
Leganes Leganes LEG	61.2	–	–	50%	37	-23
Las Palmas Las Palmas LPA	59.2	–	–	76%	34	-22
Valladolid Real Valladolid VLL	53.4	–	–	100%	23	-56

Team	Strength	Win Ligue 1	UCL Qualification	Relegation	Points	xGD
Paris S-G PSG PSG	86.7	100%	100%	–	88	64
Marseille Marseille OM	75.3	–	66%	–	63	24
Monaco Monaco ASM	79.4	–	59%	–	62	25
Nice Nice NIC	76.5	–	36%	–	60	22
Lyon Lyon OL	75.8	–	25%	–	59	21
Lille Lille LIL	74.0	–	9%	–	57	15
Strasbourg Strasbourg STR	71.4	–	4%	–	55	10
Lens Lens RCL	69.2	–	<1%	–	50	2
Brest Brest BRE	69.3	–	<1%	–	48	-2
Toulouse Toulouse TFC	72.5	–	–	–	47	6
Auxerre Auxerre AJA	64.4	–	–	<1%	42	-5
Rennes Rennes REN	70.4	–	–	<1%	40	-1
Nantes Nantes NAN	62.1	–	–	1%	36	-17
Angers Angers SCO	55.1	–	–	6%	33	-24
Reims Reims SDR	58.0	–	–	21%	31	-19
Le Havre Le Havre HAC	58.0	–	–	58%	28	-36
Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne ASS	54.7	–	–	74%	27	-42
Montpellier Montpellier MON	56.2	–	–	88%	24	-44

Football League Forecast: How Our Model Works

Our Football League Forecast combines real Opta data with our proprietary GxG (Goals × xG) and GAxGA (Goals Against × xGA) metrics to deliver a clear and concise Football Prediction. These metrics reflect both attacking output and defensive resilience, helping you spot teams that are better than their raw results might suggest.

Strength Rating Explained

We use a Strength Rating to estimate how many points a team would typically earn against an average opponent on neutral ground. For instance, if a club’s Strength Rating is 90.0, it means they’d generally secure about 90% of the possible points in that scenario. We also break down Offensive and Defensive Ratings to indicate expected goals scored and conceded against a league-average side.

20,000 Simulations for Accurate Projections

Once each team’s ratings are established, we run 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations using a Poisson distribution. This shows how often a team wins the title, claims a Champions League spot, or faces the drop. If a probability is shown as 100%, that outcome occurred in every simulation; if it’s 0% or listed as “–,” it never happened. Our Premier League Forecast updates after each matchday, ensuring the Football Forecast stays up to date and reflects the evolving story of the season.