On New Year’s Day 2024, something magical happened at Anfield. Liverpool won a thrilling 4-2 match against Newcastle United. However, the real headline was their incredible 7.39 expected goals in one game. That number is almost unbelievable.
To put it in perspective, most teams average between 1 and 2 xG per match across an entire season. Elite attacking sides might even push toward 2.5 xG per game. However, 7.39 expected goals are a statistical anomaly that might never be seen again.
Expected goals have changed how we measure attacking performance since detailed tracking started in 2016. This metric gives each shot a probability of becoming a goal, based on things like distance, angle, defender location, and whether it was from open play or a set piece. When a team’s total goes above five xG, it usually means they utterly dominated their opponent.
| Team | Strength |
|---|---|
 ArsenalArsenalArsenal | 90.1 |
 Paris S-GPSGPSG | 90.0 |
 Bayern MunichBayern MünchenBayern München | 89.5 |
 Manchester CityManchester CityManchester City | 88.9 |
 BarcelonaBarcelonaBarcelona | 87.5 |
 LiverpoolLiverpoolLiverpool | 86.6 |
 Real MadridReal MadridReal Madrid | 86.2 |
 ChelseaChelseaChelsea | 84.9 |
 InterInterInter | 83.7 |
 Newcastle UtdNewcastle UnitedNewcastle United | 83.3 |
Let me walk you through the ten highest team xG performances ever recorded in Europe’s top five leagues. And big shoutouts to StatMuse, for the data!
Liverpool leads with an absurd 7.39 xG
The highest team xG ever recorded belongs to Liverpool’s 4-2 victory over Newcastle United at Anfield on New Year’s Day 2024. Yes, they only scored four goals despite creating chances worth 7.39 expected goals. That’s an underperformance of over three goals, which tells you everything about both their dominance and their wastefulness that afternoon.
The Reds had a fantastic start, with Trent Alexander-Arnold almost scoring in the second minute. At the 19th minute, Anfield erupted after Luis Diaz’s goal, but the referee called it offside. Only two minutes later, Dubravka, who had an amazing game, saved Mo Salah’s penalty. Further saves by Dubravka and the goal post rescue Newcastle and its 0-0 at half-time. Liverpool had 18 shots and a cumulative xG of 2.49; however, they could not find the back of the net.
However, in the second half, the dam broke. Salah scored twice, and also Jones and Gakpo found the back of the net. Salah was the outstanding player with 2.7 xG on his own. Darwin Nunez and Curtis Jones also had over one expected goal. So, those three players already have over five expected goals between them.
With four goals scored after the 74th minute, it again shows that most goals are scored at the very end of the game.
Manager Jürgen Klopp described it as a “sensational” performance and one suitable for “football schools” in terms of how they implemented their counter-pressing system. The victory put Liverpool three points clear at the top of the Premier League table and established a benchmark that may stand for years.
Bayern’s Bundesliga beatdowns
Bayern München showing up three times in the top ten which isn’t shocking if you follow German football. What’s impressive is how they achieved it across different seasons and circumstances.
Their highest came in an 8-1 annihilation of Mainz on March 9th, 2024, generating 6.57 xG. Eight goals from 6.57 xG means they actually overperformed, which is rare at these extreme numbers. That’s clinical finishing when it matters.
Then there’s the 8-0 destruction of Darmstadt on October 28th, 2023 (5.87 xG) and the 7-0 thrashing of Bochum on September 18th, 2021 (5.84 xG). Notice a pattern? Bayern doesn’t just beat weaker Bundesliga sides, they absolutely demolish them. The scorelines matched the underlying numbers in ways that Liverpool’s performance didn’t.
Interesting to note: Bayer Leverkusen, another Bundesliga team, are also in the top 10 with their 2-1 victory over Gladbach in 2022. That is a staggering underperformance of 3.64 xG. Gladbach’s Yann Sommer showed a brilliant performance, saving two penalties and getting a match rating of 9.2 from FotMob.
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The future of xG records
As tracking technology improves and tactics evolve, these records will likely change too. Liverpool’s 7.39 xG could last for years, or maybe another team will break it soon if everything goes their way against a weaker opponent.
One thing is clear: expected goals help us data nerds understand what attacking dominance really looks like. These records aren’t just interesting stats. They show matches where a team did something truly special in creating chances that regular goals just don’t show.
The next time you watch a match where a team is creating chance after chance, check the xG. You might be witnessing history in the making.
If you are interested in more blogs, or in our Strength Ratings and Forecasts, gladly check them out!