Following last season’s deep dive, I’m excited to once again explore how Europe’s top teams measure up against their expected goals. In this post, I’m using a scatter plot divided into four quadrants to examine the performance across the Top 4 Leagues. This visualization not only highlights which teams have exceeded their expected metrics. It also reveals those that might be overachieving in one area while struggling in another.
The axes, expressed in percentage values, offer a clear picture of the degree to which teams have over- or underperformed relative to their expected numbers. However, it’s important to keep in mind that overperformance doesn’t necessarily signal a great season. It might simply mean that a team’s actual results look better than a poor expected baseline.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the data to uncover the outliers and noteworthy performances from this season.
Premier League
What are Spurs even doing this season? Despite languishing in 13th place after 28 rounds, they’re still managing to overperform on both ends of the pitch – suggesting that, all things considered, their form should have them even lower in the table.
On another note, while all three newly promoted teams have struggled, Wolves have been particularly intriguing. They remain out of the relegation battle thanks to an outstanding offensive effort, Cunha has surpassed his expected goals tally by 6.3, showcasing a notable overperformance up front. However, a shaky defense and a jittery José Sá have resulted in an almost 30% underperformance at the back. This is a big part of why they’re still fighting to avoid relegation.
Bundesliga
Historically Bundesliga has the highest expected goals amongst all Top Leagues, even compared to the high Premier League xG. However, this season the Bundesliga has been defined by a surge in offensive performances across most teams, paired with notable defensive shortcomings. The result? High-scoring matches and wild scorelines have become the norm.
Take Bayern München, for example. Much like last season, they struggled defensively – conceding over a third more goals than expected. However, despite these defensive shortcomings, all signs point to them reclaiming the title this year. Last season, that same defensive fragility was a key factor in their title race falling short. Now, things seem to be turning around.
Currently in third place, Mainz 05 is riding high on their overperformance. Under the transformative guidance of Bo Henriksen, who turned the team around in just one year, their Champions League spot is well-earned. The big question is: can they maintain this momentum until the season’s end? Check out the forecasts.
Serie A
Similarly to the Bundesliga, most Serie A clubs have conceded more than expected this season. The most striking outlier is Como, which conceded 14 more goals than anticipated. This is the most dramatic deviation from the norm across all teams for the newly promoted team. Meanwhile, Inter, Napoli, and Atalanta have all delivered remarkably similar performances. This consistency suggests that in the battle for the Scudetto, none of these top teams are experiencing extreme over- or underperformance. This nail-biting battle will most likely go down till the last match day.
La Liga
All La Liga teams are more evenly spread out this season. Atletico de Madrid, whose title aspirations took a huge hit after a setback against Getafe last week, are defending far above expectations. Meanwhile, the duo of Julian Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann have combined to overperform by 10.5 goals. A key factor keeping their title challenge alive. On the flip side, Real Valladolid are struggling mightily, underperforming on both fronts, and it looks like a return to the Segunda Division is almost inevitable.
If you are interested in more blogs, or in our Strength Ratings and Forecasts, gladly check them out! Also big thanks to fbref for providing the data!