What a ride it has been so far! Bayern absolutely dominated with win after win, while Stuttgart and Heidenheim failed to replicate last year’s successes. Meanwhile, Mainz pleasantly surprised us all with one of the best defensive records in the league.
However, if we take a closer look at the expected data, we’ll see that the table doesn’t quite match how teams “should” be performing. In fact, it seems like almost every club both scored and conceded more goals than expected, which has certainly given us viewers a bunch of entertaining matches. As the season progresses, the race for the Bundesliga MVP is heating up, adding even more excitement to the competition.
Defensive Struggles
The most striking case was Augsburg, who conceded twice as many goals as the expected numbers suggested. One particularly shocking example was their last game against Holstein Kiel, when they conceded 5 goals despite having an xGA (expected goals against) of just 1.67. Another surprising defensive underperformer was Bayern München, which conceded around 36% more goals than they were predicted to. It was yet another difficult half-season for Manuel Neuer, whose once impeccable reflexes finally look like they are being caught up by age. Moreover, both VFL Bochum and Heidenheim struggled on both ends of the pitch, which certainly doesn’t make their main goal of staying in the league any easier.
Offensive Overachievers
On the opposite side, several teams massively overperformed in attack. Wolfsburg and Mainz, for instance, boasted strikers like Jonas Wind and Jonathan Burkardt who scored far more often than expected. This level of overperformance can be exciting to watch, although it does beg the question of whether these teams can keep exceeding their xG (expected goals) stats for the rest of the season.
Below is a scatter plot highlighting how each team performed compared to their expected data:
Individual Offensive MVPs
After looking at team performance, I also wanted to check out the top offensive performers for each club. Therefore, I used a metric that shows the percentage of goals in which each player was involved. This is particularly revealing because players in weaker teams who stand out get some well-deserved attention. Sure, world-class players like Harry Kane will top many charts, but this approach can show us the real “MVPs” who carry their teams forward:
As you can see, Omar Marmoush ranks as the most valuable player for his team and is the Bundesliga MVP for the first half of the season. In the opening matches, he seemed to score with every shot, and his partnership with Ekitike produced plenty of assists for him as well. Another standout is Kleindienst, who slotted into the Gladbach lineup seamlessly, notching 30% of Gladbach’s total goals and providing an impressive number of assists. Grifo and Ducksch are also worth mentioning, especially due to their ability to create scoring chances for their teammates.
While both Florian Wirtz and Kane had fantastic seasons, they didn’t top this particular chart, largely because they share the spotlight with equally talented colleagues like Olise, Musiala, Schick, and Boniface. These teammates can really influence the flow of matches and shoulder some of the offensive workload.
Outlook
Looking ahead, there are a few matchups that promise excitement on the next matchday. First and foremost, there’s Dortmund vs. Leverkusen. This clash pits Bayern’s old rival against the new challenger, and it’s a showdown between a title contender and a struggling giant desperate to secure Champions League qualification. We also get to see two up-and-coming managers go head-to-head: Xabi Alonso, widely hailed as a generational coaching talent, versus Nuri Sahin, an ambitious young coach looking to finally prove his critics wrong. It’s likely to be an intense game, though Leverkusen may have the slight advantage:
On the other end of the table, Heidenheim will face Union Berlin in a match that could prove crucial for both sides. Each team is inching closer to the relegation zone, especially Union Berlin, who recently sacked Bo Svennson in a bid to spark an offensive revival. Therefore, they’ll be hoping for a new manager bounce, but since the match is away, we’re slightly favoring Heidenheim:
All in all, the second half of the season promises plenty of drama and surprises. Let’s see if the big underperformers can turn it around—or if the overachievers can keep surprising us!
For more information about our predictions check out our Bundesliga Forecast