Did you know that Real Madrid outperformed their expected goals by nearly 20 goals in the 2023/24 season? In today’s football landscape, the game goes far beyond the final score. It’s about understanding the story behind every pass, shot, and save. A major focus in this realm is the gap between what teams are expected to achieve and what they actually deliver on the pitch. Their xG performance highlights these nuances. In this blog post, I will break down the biggest overachievers and underperformers across Europe’s top five leagues for the 2023/24 season, using a unique statistic that sheds light on these discrepancies.
Understanding the Quadrants
The scatter plot visualizes the overperformance and underperformance of teams in the top five European leagues based on two main metrics:
Offensive Over/Underperformance (%): This measures the percentage difference between the actual goals scored (GF) and the expected goals (xGF). A positive value indicates overperformance in offense, while a negative value indicates underperformance. This is a crucial aspect of xG calculations.
Defensive Over/Underperformance (%): This measures the percentage difference between the actual goals conceded (GA) and the expected goals against (xGA). A positive value indicates overperformance in defense (fewer goals conceded than expected), while a negative value indicates underperformance.
Real Madrid: A Season of Dominance
It was a fantastic season for the Galácticos. After sovereignly winning the league they also won the UEFA Champions League for the 15th time. However, the Spanish champions massively overperformed, not only their scored goals, but also their conceded goals in 23/24. Real Madrid’s xG performance clearly demonstrated their dominance.
Real Madrid’s actual goals scored (87) significantly exceed their expected goals (68.8), indicating a massive overperformance in their offensive capabilities. Defensively, they have also excelled, conceding only 26 goals compared to an expected 35.4, showcasing their solid defensive setup and an impressive Andriy Lunin who exceled this season.
Offensively the two starboys Jude Bellingham and Arda Güler overperformed immensely. Bellingham who hasn’t got enough praise, overperformed his goals by a staggering 7.9 goals (19 GF – 11.1 xG). Additionally, Arda Güler showed some impressive performances in the later stages of the season and scored 6 goals while only having 1.4 expected goals.
Inter: Unfinished Business
Dominance. Pure Dominance. Inter Milan’s 2023/24 Serie A campaign was nothing short of extraordinary, amassing a staggering 94 points and losing only twice in 38 games.
Yet, despite their domestic success, the season was still not perfect. Just in the previous year, they were on the brink of winning the UEFA Champions League so they had hopes of continuing their upwards trend. Key signings like Yann Sommer, Benjamin Pavard, and especially Marcus Thuram gave the Nerrazzurri hope to finally win it again this year after 14 years.
However, their title aspirations were dashed early. Atlético Madrid crushed Inter’s hopes in a close tie, resulting in a penalty shootout defeat. Their xG performance clearly highlighted their potential to win it all that season.
Heidenheim: Punching Above Their Weight
Heidenheim’s rise is nothing short of a miracle. Just last year they were playing in the 2. Bundesliga, clinching the title and therefore the guaranteed promotion on the last matchday. Now, a year later, they finished 8th in their first Bundesliga season in the clubs history. The 8th place also results in a qualification to the UEFA Conference League.
However, this extraordinary success came at a cost, with key losses that would make next season, 2024/25, much harder. Notably, the sales of Jan-Niklas Beste and Tim Kleindienst, who between them contributed a massive 34 goal involvements (G/A), hurt the most. Particularly, Beste with his lethal crosses from the left side terrorized defenses the entire season. His 19 G/A far exceeded expectations, considering his expected assists (xAG) stood at just 5.7. This just shows how spectacular this season has been for him – one that he might not be able to repeat. This incredible xG performance resulted in a seemingly unrivaled season.
Matters are further complicated by the fact that Eren Dinkçi’s loan spell from Werder Bremen has come to an end after contributing 10 goals.
Having 19 G/A while only having 5.7 xAG shows, that this was a miraculous season, that likely won’t get repeated from him anymore.
With these main offensive players gone, Heidenheim faces an uphill battle as they go into their sophomore season in the Bundesliga.
Bayern München: Off-Day?
While Heidenheim celebrated their incredible Bundesliga debut, the Bavarian giants had nothing to laugh about. Just a year prior, Bayern had everything going for them. Winning the title in the last matchday against the biggest rival, Borussia Dortmund, and signing world-class striker Harry Kane. Smart signings like Konrad Laimer and Raphael Guerreiro seemed to further solidify their dominance. However, a few months later, everything fell apart.
Chaos in the club, internal power struggles, sacking of Tuchel, getting dominated by a rising Bayer Leverkusen and losing to a 3rd division team in the cup. For the first time since 2010/11, Bayern found themselves outside of the Bundesliga’s top two.
While Kane and Jamal Musiala delivered offensively, the defense was the letdown, resulting in the biggest defensive underperformance in the Top 5 leagues. Both Min-jae Kim and Dayot Upamecano were guilty of some very costly mistakes, while the goalkeeping situation behind them, with an recovering and aging Manuel Neuer and an inconsistent Sven Ulreich, offered little support. Bayern’s famed stability was nowhere to be found and now it’s Kompany’s job, to turn the ship around.
Sheffield United: An (un)forgettable season
Disaster. There is no other word for Sheffield United’s Premier League campaign. At no point did they look competitive, and like the other two newly promoted sides, they are headed straight back down. However, this season will be remembered for all the wrong reasons: breaking Swindon Town’s 30-year-old record of the most conceded goals in history of the Premier League.
What makes it even more tragic is that their expected goals against (xGA) was ‘only’ 76.7. Still poor, but far from the staggering 104 goals they actually conceded, averaging 2.74 goals per game. This discrepancy between the expected and the actual goals against highlights how defensively horrible their season was. Simply put, it was shocking.